Food Shocks

How Did Small Businesses Recover from COVID-19?

The COVID-19 pandemic was unlike any shock that affected the food system. Businesses were locked down. Consumers were locked down. Federal funding to help was completely different than programs offered during previous natural disasters, such as a tornado or flood. And while the economy was dramatically affected, there was no destruction of property or infrastructure.
 
Small businesses, which are responsible for 44 percent of activity in the U.S. economy, struggled mightily during COVID. According to a May 2020 Small Business Pulse survey conducted by the Census Bureau, about 33 percent said they didn’t think their business would go back to normal operations for more than six months.
 
How did small businesses cope and recover? By taking advantage of family assets, including household savings, family labor, and loans from family and friends, according to the results in “In the depths of despair: Lost income and recovery for small business during COVID-19,” published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
 
“Even if you say you’re not a family business, you still rely on your household,” said Maria Marshall, Food Shocks Project Extension lead who holds the James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University and a paper author. “Household savings, borrowing from friends and family, selling an asset, that might be a household asset, are things you’re relying on. You might be using extra labor from your spouse or kids. There’s that family-business intermingling, that boundary between business and household is a little bit porous, particularly for small business owners who might not have the staff, or they might have had to let staff go because of the expense.”
 
According to Marshall, COVID was essentially two shocks: one to the business and one to the family.
 
“It’s very rare that you get a shock that affects almost everyone, on both the supply and demand side,” she explained.
 
For a small business, it wasn’t just business outcomes that were affected. Household outcomes also felt the strain, including increased financial stress, as well as the stress of working long hours, providing child care, and overseeing online schooling.
 
“The business doesn’t stand alone; it also provides household income,” Marshall said.
 
The paper found that most small businesses took about seven months to recover from COVID. But according to Marshall, who has extensively studied how small businesses react to disasters, recovery is a process.
 
“I tend to characterize businesses as survivors, people that are recovered and then resilient,” she explained. “I characterize a survivor as somebody who’s still operating, but their revenue or the number of employees they have isn’t back to where they were before the shock. And I tend to categorize people that have recovered, people that are back to that baseline where they were before the shock, or on that same trend line. And then somebody who’s resilient is somebody who is back up and running in the same trend line as before, but has done things to mitigate the next shock. So, they have more insurance now, or they’ve cross-trained employees. So the next time they go through a shock, it’s going to have fewer negative effects.
 
“It didn’t surprise me that it took seven months, because some people recover right away. Actually, some people recover, others reopen, then close, and then come back in.”

2026 Food Resiliency Fellows Named

The Food Shocks Project welcomed eleven scholars from across the country as 2026 Food Resiliency Fellows. The fellowship program is designed to help junior and middle-career professionals gain experience in leadership, team science, proposal writing, and project implementation.

“We are extremely proud of our Food Resiliency Fellows Program,” said Brent Ross, professor of food and agribusiness management at Michigan State who leads the Food Shocks Project. “This program extends our ability to build a more resilient food system by mentoring the next generation of food resiliency professionals. The fellows program also allows us to bring in new expertise and perspectives to the project and to expand our impact to regions outside the U.S. Great Lakes Region. During the one-year experience, fellows are integrated into the project and invited to participate in all project meetings; engage in research, extension, and teaching activities; and collaborate on new publications and grant proposals. Our 2025 Fellows made significant contributions to the Food Shocks Project –including leading a recently funded effort to expand project activities to the Southeast United States — and we are excited to welcome our 2026 cohort. We know they will do great things.”
 
The 2026 Fellows are:
 
Kelvin Amon, assistant professor of dairy business and economic development at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville and an affiliate of the Dairy Innovation Hub at UW-Madison. His research examines how farmers and agribusinesses adapt to risk and disruptions through technology adoption, risk-management tools, and the design of cost-support programs. He uses experimental economic methods, machine learning, and simulation-based profitability analysis to provide decision-ready insights for producers and policy stakeholders. His work aims to support resilient, economically viable dairy and specialty-crop systems across the Midwest and beyond.
 
“I’m excited about the opportunity to translate resilience theory into practical, decision-ready tools for producers and advisers, especially within Wisconsin’s dairy economy, so the region can anticipate disruptions and recover faster,” Amon said.
 
Jennifer Clark, instructional associate professor of food and resource economics at the University of Florida. Her teaching and scholarship focus on agribusiness education, experiential learning, and the application of economic principles to real-world food system challenges. She teaches courses on economic issues in food systems, human resource management in agribusiness, and circular food economies, emphasizing applied decision-making and student engagement across diverse learning environments.
 
“I look forward to engaging with collaborators at Michigan State University during the 2026 All Hands Meeting and building long-term interdisciplinarypartnerships that will support translating Food Shocks research into applied, student-centered learning experiences,” Clark said.
 
LaPorchia Collins, food and agricultural economist in the Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University. Her research advances food systems by examining structural inequities across the agriculture‑food‑environment nexus. Her work integrates agricultural economics and policy analysis to assess how industry trends, government decisions, and economic shocks shape food and agricultural markets, while also identifying key drivers of food insecurity at local, national, and global scales.
 
“I’m excited about collaborating on research that will produce actionable insights to improve the resilience of underserved communities,” Collins said.
 
Oliva Craig, project coordinator for the Replenishing the Beings, the Soil Beneath Our Feet project, funded by the USDA-NIFBE. The project aims to build relationships with and support Native producers in Michigan by providing access to soil health testing. Craig’s background includes conducting research, education, and extension with Native communities, emphasizing the role of traditional agricultural knowledge in fostering Indigenous food and tribal sovereignty.
 
“I’m excited to learn from the expertise of other fellows and contribute my perspective around transforming academic research into community solutions,” Craig said.
 
Gabriela Garcia, assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences and public policy and urban affairs at Northeastern University. Her research examines how linkages between ecological dynamics and management decision-making affect ecosystem functions and human well-being. She is especially interested in diversified farming systems and nature-based solutions throughout Latin America.
 
“[Being a Fellow] affords me the opportunity to engage with colleagues committed to supporting more equitable, sustainable, and resilient food systems,” Garcia said.
 
John Jones, assistant professor of environmental studies at Virginia Commonwealth University. His main research interests surround the intersection of urban food system development, urban food insecurity, local governance, and the challenges facing America’s cities. In recent years, he has begun to research interventions to mitigate college student food insecurity. He draws upon his practitioner experience in government and politics at the local and state levels in Ohio and New Jersey to inform his work.
 
“I’m more or less the only food studies scholar at my university,” Jones said. “I’m excited to collaborate with other food studies/systems scholars, especially on the topic of food system resiliency.”
 
Mike Jones, research assistant professor of economics at the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) and applied economist for the UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research. His research is focused on food systems, food security, and the impacts of transportation, infrastructure, and supply chain performance on economic development. This research involves interdisciplinary collaboration across many natural and social science fields to examine complex impacts on markets, the environment, and society. He also maintains active collaborations across the public and private sectors in autonomous aviation and the broader Alaskan aviation industry.
 
“I’m looking forward to leveraging the expertise of the mentorship group for methodological rigor and elevating the extreme food supply chain challenges faced by Alaska and the extensive remote communities of the circumpolar north,” Jones said.
 
Amanda Kaminsky, incoming post-doctoral researcher in anthropology and heritage studies at the University of California, Merced. Her research examines how the cultural meanings of food come to shape and reflect regulations, supply chains, and the political ecology of nonhuman species. She is currently expanding her previous work in Kenya and Vermont into a new project examining resilience in American sheep and goat meat industries, focusing on California’s Central Valley region. 
 
“I am excited to discover what motivates producers and consumers to seek alternatives outside the mainstream industrial food system,” Kaminsky said. “Despite all of the regulatory and financial barriers, people nevertheless find ways to promote regenerative practices, niche products, direct sales, and more.”
 
Juliano Marques, post-doctoral associate at the University of Vermont and associate of the Builders Vision Project. His research focuses on markets for specialty crops, agricultural economics, sustainable production systems, and stakeholder coordination across the food supply chain.
 
“I enjoy working with multidisciplinary teams of researchers, educators, and industry professionals,” Marques said. “This project provides a great opportunity to exchange ideas and discuss strategies to build resilience in food supply systems through different approaches and perspectives.”
 
Harrison Smith, PhD candidate, University of Arkansas. Smith is interested in issues at the intersection of environmental science, agriculture, and ecology. His current research focuses on applications of novel geospatial tools and methods for enhancing sustainability of agroecosystems and improving livelihoods of producers and farmers.
 
“The Food Shocks Project offers a unique opportunity to advance interdisciplinary, regional-scale science that directly supports more sustainable and resilient food systems,” he said. “I am thrilled to work with such a diverse team focused on translating cutting-edge science into actionable extension and education opportunities.”
 
Zhijie “ZJ” Zhou, third-year PhD student in the Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. His research focuses on developing novel ground-truthing approaches for agricultural remote sensing and evaluating migratory bird stopover habitats within the working lands of the U.S. Midwest, particularly in landscapes shaped by conservation agriculture practices.
 
“As a PhD student focused on remote sensing in agriculture and biodiversity, I’m excited to engage with a diverse network of researchers and stakeholders,” Zhou said. “This project is a great opportunity to connect data-heavy geospatial research with real-world applications and contribute to practical solutions that strengthen food system resilience.”

Shock-Proofing the Food System

Food shocks disrupt the food supply chain. Wars and other conflicts, extreme weather, disease outbreaks, and financial crises all affect what’s available at the grocery store.
 
For example, during the roughly three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, from 2020 to 2023, the food supply system was buffeted by a number of shocks. Restaurants and schools closed, dramatically decreasing the number of buyers for meat, milk, and potatoes. People panic-shopped, triggering shortages of eggs, flour, canned goods, and bottled water, not to mention toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
 
The Food Shocks Project, funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, aims to make the entire food system – from farms to stores — better able to withstand these types of shocks so people have reliable and regular access to food. Made up of elite scientists from institutions across the country, the project is developing solutions that take into account the interdependency of all aspects of the food system. While the focus is the Midwest of the United States, the project has national and international application.
 
“A food shock knocks a food system off-balance — cutting supply, scrambling transportation or processing, or spiking costs quickly,” explained Jianguo “Jack” Liu, University Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University who holds the Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability. Liu is one of the co-PIs of the Food Shocks Project. “Multiple shocks are two or more shocks that happen simultaneously or one after another. Their effects can compound — especially if the food system hasn’t recovered before the next hit.”
 
In “Building sustainable and resilient agri-food system under multiple shocks,” published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, the Food Shocks Project scientists explain the holistic framework they’re developing to help every facet of the food supply chain better withstand shocks.
 
“Food is essential to humans and other living beings, including animals and crops, and agriculture is the root of the health of our society, economy, and environment,” said Chyi Lyi “Kathleen” Liang, W.K. Kellogg Distinguished Professor of Sustainable Agriculture at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, another Food Shocks Project co-PI. “Everyone appreciates affordable, accessible, and nutritious food to maintain a balanced quality of life. When food supply chains are interrupted by unexpected shocks such as natural disasters or disease outbreaks, we lose the ability and capacity to function in our communities.”
 
“Everyone should care about food shocks because they can lead to food shortages and higher grocery bills,” Liu added. “For example, the bird flu outbreak in the United States in 2022 reduced egg-laying flocks, causing egg shortages and higher prices.”
 
Besides research to identify and quantify the effects of food system shocks, the experts are developing strategies to offset the impact of the shocks. Research results will be used to create teaching modules for students at all levels, as well as Extension programs for producers, processors, and retailers.
 
“The project has developed an integrated, transdisciplinary framework that engages multiple stakeholders across the Great Lakes food system,” said Brent Ross, professor of food and agribusiness management at Michigan State who leads the Food Shocks Project. “This approach allows us to capture the various impacts of multiple shocks that might occur at among different stakeholders, from production to processing to distribution and consumption, and across different food supply chains.”
 
Many previous efforts to address food system shocks focused on specific industries in specific locations. But shocks that seem to affect food production and demand in only one supply chain have a cascading effect around the country. No food system exists in a vacuum – an outbreak of avian flu in Indiana can affect dairy markets in Nevada — so an integrated approach is critical to developing comprehensive solutions.
 
To ensure that results from research on food shocks leads to meaningful change, the Food Shocks Project includes a Food Resiliency Fellowship Program. The program is designed to develop leaders in sustainable agriculture who will oversee future food shocks research, education, or extension.
 
The goal of the project, which will be accomplished through nine interrelated objectives, is to build local and regional food systems that are resilient to multiple shocks.
 
Objectives one through three are evaluating key characteristics of supply chains, the effects of historical and projected shocks, and alternative mitigation/adaptation strategies.
 
Objectives four and five center on innovative systems modeling, simulation, and decision support using artificial intelligence.
 
Objective six is examining the effect of shocks and mitigation strategies on food and nutrition security, particularly among vulnerable U.S. populations.
 
Objectives seven and eight are applying novel research findings to extension and education.
 
Objective nine aims to holistically integrate research, extension, and education to inspire futuristic, equitable solutions to policymakers and stakeholders.
 
“Using the new knowledge we’re developing, we’re helping localities and regions to better handle the unanticipated problems to come, ones that may result in hunger, malnutrition, lost crops, lost jobs, and wasted food,” said Jennifer Meta Robinson, professor of anthropology at Indiana University and Food Shocks Project co-PI.

Food Shocks co-PI named to National Academy of Sciences

Jianguo “Jack” Liu, University Distinguished Professor who holds the Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability at Michigan State University, has been elected to the esteemed National Academy of Sciences.
 
Liu, a Food Shocks project co-PI, is the founder and director of MSU’s Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability and a member of MSU’s Ecology, Environment, and Behavior Program and the Environmental Science and Policy Program. Liu has been a trailblazer in understanding and seeking solutions to some of the world’s most pressing problems by integrating the needs of both humans and nature. His work on understanding the complex interactions in the giant panda habitat in the remote mountains of southwestern China has evolved into a pioneering career in systems integration for global sustainability — the integration of natural and social sciences, policy, and technology for understanding and promoting global environmental sustainability.
 
“I am deeply honored to be amongst the many colleagues I have admired and had the pleasure to work with at Michigan State University and beyond,” Liu said. “The tremendous community of the academy is a powerful source of support as we together face significant challenges and opportunities for our country and our world. MSU has been a wonderful place to teach and discover. I am most grateful to the fantastic MSU students, staff, faculty, and administrators as well as collaborators in other institutions and funding agencies for their excellent support and help over the past three decades.”
 
He has opened and greatly advanced new interdisciplinary frontiers with the award-winning frameworks of telecoupling and metacoupling, powerful tools applied across the world that have uncovered hidden and complex cascading impacts of human activities in specific places on sustainability elsewhere globally. His innovative work has been adopted by not only the scientific community but also government agencies and international organizations such as the United Nations.

Food Shocks team members in the news

Lav Varshney has been named the inaugural director of the Artificial Intelligence Innovation Institute(AI3) at Stony Brook University. He also will hold the inaugural Della Pietra Infinity chair. Within the Food Shocks Project, Varshney is supporting objective five, AI-enable decision support systems.
 
Nick Magliocca, associate professor of geography and the environment at the University of Alabama and a member of the Food Shocks Project first fellowship cohort, received an $880,743 grant from the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs for a study focused on innovating the systems involved in the production, processing, and distribution of food.
 
Felicia Wu, John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor and University Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University, was selected to serve as co-chair of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, committee on the ethical, legal, environmental, safety, security, and other appropriate societal issues related to engineering biology research and development. Wu also was recently reappointed to the Michigan Commission of Agriculture and Rural Development. Her term will extend through December 2030.
 
Logan Britton, associate professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University and a member of the Food Shocks Project first fellowship cohort, received the Early Career Award from the Kansas State Gamma Sigma Delta chapter.

Wu named to international expert committee on food additives and food contaminants

Felicia Wu, Food Shocks Project co-PI who holds the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor of Food Safety, Toxicology, and Risk Assessment at Michigan State University, has been named to the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives, which is administered by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Health Organization.
 
“The committee conducts risk assessments on food additives and contaminants, such as artificial sweeteners, food dyes, food preservatives, and naturally occurring toxins such as aflatoxin and arsenic,” Wu explained. “Based on our risk assessments, we provide advice to the United Nations Codex Alimentarius Commission on safe levels, which they then use to set guidelines for these food additives and contaminants for the world.”
 
In her role as co-PI, Wu leads the Food Shocks Project objective on evaluating the nutrition and public health effects of food shocks on different food supply chains and different populations within the United States.

Marshall honored with Hovde Award

Maria Marshall, Food Shocks Project Extension lead who holds the James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, received the Frederick L. Hovde Award of Excellence in Educational Service to Rural People of Indiana. Marshall is the founding director of the Purdue Institute for Family Business and the director of the North Central Regional Center for Rural Development.
 
For the Food Shocks Project, Marshall is collaborating with Renee Wiatt, family business management specialists, to write a curriculum for farmers focused on contingency planning for multiple shocks. They will pilot the curriculum in Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois, working with Extension partners in each state.
 
“My doctoral dissertation centered on trade and development, so when Purdue had a job in rural business development, it felt like a really good fit — and it still does 22 years later,” Marshall said. “As an applied economist, I want to support rural households and small businesses, especially where disparities exist. I want to make a meaningful impact and hope that receiving this award reflects that I am making a difference one family at a time.”