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Shock-Proofing the Food System
Food shocks disrupt the food supply chain. Wars and other conflicts, extreme weather, disease outbreaks, and financial crises all affect what’s available at the grocery store.
For example, during the roughly three years of the COVID-19 pandemic, from 2020 to 2023, the food supply system was buffeted by a number of shocks. Restaurants and schools closed, dramatically decreasing the number of buyers for meat, milk, and potatoes. People panic-shopped, triggering shortages of eggs, flour, canned goods, and bottled water, not to mention toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
The Food Shocks Project, funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, aims to make the entire food system – from farms to stores — better able to withstand these types of shocks so people have reliable and regular access to food. Made up of elite scientists from institutions across the country, the project is developing solutions that take into account the interdependency of all aspects of the food system. While the focus is the Midwest of the United States, the project has national and international application.
“A food shock knocks a food system off-balance — cutting supply, scrambling transportation or processing, or spiking costs quickly,” explained Jianguo “Jack” Liu, University Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University who holds the Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability. Liu is one of the co-PIs of the Food Shocks Project. “Multiple shocks are two or more shocks that happen simultaneously or one after another. Their effects can compound — especially if the food system hasn’t recovered before the next hit.”
In “Building sustainable and resilient agri-food system under multiple shocks,” published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, the Food Shocks Project scientists explain the holistic framework they’re developing to help every facet of the food supply chain better withstand shocks.
“Food is essential to humans and other living beings, including animals and crops, and agriculture is the root of the health of our society, economy, and environment,” said Chyi Lyi “Kathleen” Liang, W.K. Kellogg Distinguished Professor of Sustainable Agriculture at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, another Food Shocks Project co-PI. “Everyone appreciates affordable, accessible, and nutritious food to maintain a balanced quality of life. When food supply chains are interrupted by unexpected shocks such as natural disasters or disease outbreaks, we lose the ability and capacity to function in our communities.”
“Everyone should care about food shocks because they can lead to food shortages and higher grocery bills,” Liu added. “For example, the bird flu outbreak in the United States in 2022 reduced egg-laying flocks, causing egg shortages and higher prices.”
Besides research to identify and quantify the effects of food system shocks, the experts are developing strategies to offset the impact of the shocks. Research results will be used to create teaching modules for students at all levels, as well as Extension programs for producers, processors, and retailers.
“The project has developed an integrated, transdisciplinary framework that engages multiple stakeholders across the Great Lakes food system,” said Brent Ross, professor of food and agribusiness management at Michigan State who leads the Food Shocks Project. “This approach allows us to capture the various impacts of multiple shocks that might occur at among different stakeholders, from production to processing to distribution and consumption, and across different food supply chains.”
Many previous efforts to address food system shocks focused on specific industries in specific locations. But shocks that seem to affect food production and demand in only one supply chain have a cascading effect around the country. No food system exists in a vacuum – an outbreak of avian flu in Indiana can affect dairy markets in Nevada — so an integrated approach is critical to developing comprehensive solutions.
To ensure that results from research on food shocks leads to meaningful change, the Food Shocks Project includes a Food Resiliency Fellowship Program. The program is designed to develop leaders in sustainable agriculture who will oversee future food shocks research, education, or extension.
The goal of the project, which will be accomplished through nine interrelated objectives, is to build local and regional food systems that are resilient to multiple shocks.
Objectives one through three are evaluating key characteristics of supply chains, the effects of historical and projected shocks, and alternative mitigation/adaptation strategies.
Objectives four and five center on innovative systems modeling, simulation, and decision support using artificial intelligence.
Objective six is examining the effect of shocks and mitigation strategies on food and nutrition security, particularly among vulnerable U.S. populations.
Objectives seven and eight are applying novel research findings to extension and education.
Objective nine aims to holistically integrate research, extension, and education to inspire futuristic, equitable solutions to policymakers and stakeholders.
“Using the new knowledge we’re developing, we’re helping localities and regions to better handle the unanticipated problems to come, ones that may result in hunger, malnutrition, lost crops, lost jobs, and wasted food,” said Jennifer Meta Robinson, professor of anthropology at Indiana University and Food Shocks Project co-PI.
Food Shocks co-PI named to National Academy of Sciences
Jianguo “Jack” Liu, University Distinguished Professor who holds the Rachel Carson Chair in Sustainability at Michigan State University, has been elected to the esteemed National Academy of Sciences.
Liu, a Food Shocks project co-PI, is the founder and director of MSU’s Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability and a member of MSU’s Ecology, Environment, and Behavior Program and the Environmental Science and Policy Program. Liu has been a trailblazer in understanding and seeking solutions to some of the world’s most pressing problems by integrating the needs of both humans and nature. His work on understanding the complex interactions in the giant panda habitat in the remote mountains of southwestern China has evolved into a pioneering career in systems integration for global sustainability — the integration of natural and social sciences, policy, and technology for understanding and promoting global environmental sustainability.
“I am deeply honored to be amongst the many colleagues I have admired and had the pleasure to work with at Michigan State University and beyond,” Liu said. “The tremendous community of the academy is a powerful source of support as we together face significant challenges and opportunities for our country and our world. MSU has been a wonderful place to teach and discover. I am most grateful to the fantastic MSU students, staff, faculty, and administrators as well as collaborators in other institutions and funding agencies for their excellent support and help over the past three decades.”
He has opened and greatly advanced new interdisciplinary frontiers with the award-winning frameworks of telecoupling and metacoupling, powerful tools applied across the world that have uncovered hidden and complex cascading impacts of human activities in specific places on sustainability elsewhere globally. His innovative work has been adopted by not only the scientific community but also government agencies and international organizations such as the United Nations.
Food Shocks team members in the news
Lav Varshney has been named the inaugural director of the Artificial Intelligence Innovation Institute(AI3) at Stony Brook University. He also will hold the inaugural Della Pietra Infinity chair. Within the Food Shocks Project, Varshney is supporting objective five, AI-enable decision support systems.
Nick Magliocca, associate professor of geography and the environment at the University of Alabama and a member of the Food Shocks Project first fellowship cohort, received an $880,743 grant from the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs for a study focused on innovating the systems involved in the production, processing, and distribution of food.
Felicia Wu, John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor and University Distinguished Professor at Michigan State University, was selected to serve as co-chair of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, committee on the ethical, legal, environmental, safety, security, and other appropriate societal issues related to engineering biology research and development. Wu also was recently reappointed to the Michigan Commission of Agriculture and Rural Development. Her term will extend through December 2030.
Logan Britton, associate professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University and a member of the Food Shocks Project first fellowship cohort, received the Early Career Award from the Kansas State Gamma Sigma Delta chapter.
Wu named to international expert committee on food additives and food contaminants
Felicia Wu, Food Shocks Project co-PI who holds the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor of Food Safety, Toxicology, and Risk Assessment at Michigan State University, has been named to the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives, which is administered by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Health Organization.
“The committee conducts risk assessments on food additives and contaminants, such as artificial sweeteners, food dyes, food preservatives, and naturally occurring toxins such as aflatoxin and arsenic,” Wu explained. “Based on our risk assessments, we provide advice to the United Nations Codex Alimentarius Commission on safe levels, which they then use to set guidelines for these food additives and contaminants for the world.”
In her role as co-PI, Wu leads the Food Shocks Project objective on evaluating the nutrition and public health effects of food shocks on different food supply chains and different populations within the United States.
Marshall honored with Hovde Award
Maria Marshall, Food Shocks Project Extension lead who holds the James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, received the Frederick L. Hovde Award of Excellence in Educational Service to Rural People of Indiana. Marshall is the founding director of the Purdue Institute for Family Business and the director of the North Central Regional Center for Rural Development.
For the Food Shocks Project, Marshall is collaborating with Renee Wiatt, family business management specialists, to write a curriculum for farmers focused on contingency planning for multiple shocks. They will pilot the curriculum in Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois, working with Extension partners in each state.
“My doctoral dissertation centered on trade and development, so when Purdue had a job in rural business development, it felt like a really good fit — and it still does 22 years later,” Marshall said. “As an applied economist, I want to support rural households and small businesses, especially where disparities exist. I want to make a meaningful impact and hope that receiving this award reflects that I am making a difference one family at a time.”